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Excel - Time Series Forecasting - Part 1 of 3

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Part 2: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5C012eMSeIU&feature=youtu.be Part 3: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kcfiu-f88JQ&feature=youtu.be This is Part 1 of a 3 part "Time Series Forecasting in Excel" video lecture. Be sure to watch Parts 2 and 3 upon completing Part 1. The links for 2 and 3 are in the video as well as above.
Категория: Образование
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Текстовые комментарии (195)
Umair Aslam (8 дней назад)
I am glad to watch your video, that's a good effort and really appreciable. Recently, I have watched another video on the topic of forecasting and their tool "QForecaster" which also covers Time Series Analysis with statistical reliability. See the link: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rgzQvVdoaMI
Frank Conte (18 дней назад)
My chart is off. When I try to plot the CMA the values seem to double.In other words the actual values do not hug the actual ones as in the video.. Am I doing something wrong with the select data function?
Dean Lemcke-Evans (1 месяц назад)
What would you do if you had similar data but by month not quarter
John Benedict Azarcon (1 месяц назад)
I LOVE U SO MUCH
牛帅 (1 месяц назад)
U can check ARIMA, a very powerful method to do this
YonP (1 месяц назад)
@Jalayer Academy please tell us what model this is?
joe browning (2 месяца назад)
Awesome job, you saved me a lot of headaches! Thanks so much! You the man!
Honey Notwani (2 месяца назад)
Hi Sir, I am so happy to watch your videos, but i have a Q regarding the same, If i would like to forecast date wise and i am receiving very different volume like i have receive 2000 count 1 day and next day i receive only 900 count and after 5 days i receive again 1500 above count and this is not possible that if i received 2000 count in 01-jan-2018 so i will receive approximately 2000 or more then 2000, may be possible that i will receive 1200 count in 1-fab-2018 how can i forecast for next month for 1-Mar-2018
Kamona Kar (3 месяца назад)
LOVELY SIRRRRR!!! ITS A FABULOUS HELP!!!!
Mohsen Hashemi (3 месяца назад)
You saved a mystery for me thankkkkkks
Civci (4 месяца назад)
Awesome. Thanks
PLAY MAKER (4 месяца назад)
Hi Jalayer, thanks for the video. It's really helpful. I have a quick question though. What would be the MA and CMA if I have 3 years data month wise? Should I be considering the average in 12 months at a time?
L VR (4 месяца назад)
What is the minimum amount of starting data required for this forecasting method to be accurate??
Ridwan Rahadi (5 месяцев назад)
Hi, How using the method to forecast multiple SKU/Product in one worksheet
Isaac Hatch (6 месяцев назад)
Is Ryan Gosling giving this tutorial?
Robert (6 месяцев назад)
Would you show us how to create a genetic Algorithm in Excel?
Gururaj Hiroli (7 месяцев назад)
can we have any theory pdf regarding this method?
Larry Zhou (7 месяцев назад)
@11:00 why do you take the MVA of 4 quarters and put it in the 3rd quarter location? so you have 2 from the past, 1 current, and the 1 of the future.
Deepthy Praveen (7 месяцев назад)
how do I do this at Item Level - month wise rather year/ qtr sales
Digital Nomad (8 месяцев назад)
Please, very grateful for your video but .. so many people asking you what the name of this model is but still no answer.
王朝愉 (9 месяцев назад)
I have a question after watched all your vids on this topic. How do I apply this method to a monthly data with seasonality by weeks? t1 is the first day of the month and it can be a Sunday. But t32,which is the first date of the forecast, will be another day, possible a Tuesday. Of course you can use the Sunday's data to forecast a Tuesday's performance. How to fix this?
صبر جليل خميس (9 месяцев назад)
بحاجة بيانات لغرض البحث 😔
Berkan Ataş (9 месяцев назад)
thx for the help. I have missed one thing that why have we started from the 3. cell when taking moving average?
Alok Sharma (10 месяцев назад)
well explained!! ... although redundant...
Z touka (10 месяцев назад)
man you're too cold.... you could've landed the idea in less than 5 min
BattleofYorktown77 (10 месяцев назад)
One thing I noticed is that at least with my data, Year, Month, (Int/Sales), changing the number of periods included in the moving average from 4 months to 12 months, did not really create much impact. I only had 2 years of history so I kept the moving average to 4 months. I was 98% accurate or more in predicting actuals. Thanks for the refresher course!!! The market I deal in is fairly stable with slight volatility when new products are introduced or insurance companies make changes.I work in healthcare. I think an area this guy highlights that some folks dont catch is actually understanding how your data moves visually along with the influencers of the data.This is a critical step as it may lead you to a different regression model.
Raj Najat (10 месяцев назад)
I disagree with Mr Ivan...... Whatever repetitions you have done not only clarified the subject more, but it also did a bit of revision. One should think about people who are totally alien to the subject , and not about those who know too much ABOUT THE SUBJECT ! I am compelled to say that that the author and commentator of this video is one of the greatest teachers EVER ! ( this is my first video for him, but I am a physician and I know how to evaluate something ! Congratulations to the Jalayer Academy and thanks for being kind to spend your time and money for the common and downtrodden man !
Rishil Lakhe (10 месяцев назад)
WHAT IS THE NAME OF THIS METHOD? AR,MA,ARMA,ARIMA, OR WHAT?
YonP (1 месяц назад)
Is it really called moving average model? it seems that it's different than moving average
Gururaj Hiroli (7 месяцев назад)
Moving average model
Vercingetorix061983 (11 месяцев назад)
Nice work, dude!
Human Needs (1 год назад)
If anybody wants hindi Excel classes https://youtu.be/xEhXUaJgA4o
Ridwan Rahadi (1 год назад)
Hi There, this video very good, Thank you, but how to make forecast for many SKU of Inventory such as 100 SKU
sgteamx (1 год назад)
Thanks for the video! What types of forecasting is this, and why was it chosen compared to say, exponential smoothing / ARMA / Weighted moving average?
Emmanuel Kwarirandunda (1 год назад)
Great video. Thank you
Sai Phani Theja (1 год назад)
May I know the theory and formulae behind this example. I mean what should I search for to get the theory
C Alex (1 год назад)
Good watch. next time just close your window and open your air conditioner pls. Noise outside.
GateCrashers (1 год назад)
Do you cover Multi-variate time series ?
GateCrashers (1 год назад)
holy fcuk he speaks slow ! JESUS, I had to speed it up to 2 just to not fall a fcuking sleep ! Good job, though !
Travis Preciado (1 год назад)
I'm curious do you have a video using the seasonality index? Its where you average the numbers from q1 q2 q3 and q4
kailash mehta (1 год назад)
Great video ! cover fundamental of forecasting . How to manage forecasting in excel , especially if products or sku is more than 5000.
Philip Park (1 год назад)
whats up with the fire truck in the back ground? big city? lol
Brandy Jackson (1 год назад)
Thank you for breaking this down. VERY helpful.
Sam Ting (1 год назад)
Hi, thanks for the great video. I notice when you present, you can also draw with red mark on the screen, how you did that?
Dilan Sankalpa (1 год назад)
You waste time by saying lot of words. any way thank u for the video
Hessam Harandi (1 год назад)
You have the knowledge and know how to teach. Great job and thanks a lot!
D. Nelson (1 год назад)
Good info but OMG, so slow. Please edit and speed up. It was 1:10 before it got to the point.
James Perry (1 год назад)
Thanks. Thats a great! and valuable tutorial.
TAYLOR GRAY (1 год назад)
Great videos for data analysis!
Darragh Murray (1 год назад)
Have you done any videos for the additive (rather than multiplicative) method?
Francis Dallorto de Oliveira (1 год назад)
How accurate is that for long periods? What the confidence ratio and error margin? If i take it to, for exemple, 2020, would it be useful?
Clive Buhagiar (1 год назад)
This series of 3 is fantastic! Thanks so much. It's really straightforward to follow and does exactly what I need.
Handi Rahmadiansyah (1 год назад)
thanks a lot
Young Rod Beats (1 год назад)
My forecasting teacher has nothing on you!
Inova Aria (1 год назад)
If you are doing so analysis why you are not rich ?
Leana Phillip (1 год назад)
awesome lesson! is there any way to include other variables such like economic factors like employment rates ?
Logesh Raja (1 год назад)
Hey thank you , @jalayer academy , Can you please let how did you decide to do Moving average on 4 periods
Allan Davis (1 год назад)
4 periods is one year, the assumption is that the data is cyclic with period 1 year
唐永 (1 год назад)
It is very useful, thankyou ,look forward to your next vedio
nikhil nayan (1 год назад)
Thankyou for the video. Really helped me to clear my understanding of time series forecasting.
DevilsCreed (1 год назад)
Why am I here im in year 7
Damar Dwi Prasetyo (1 год назад)
hey,,@jalayer academy,,,,many thanks for this awesome methode forecast,,,but,,,,would you help me, how to forecast if yt is uneven database ex: sunday to saturday (7)...??,,,
Lorinda Forrest (1 год назад)
Good info, but you only need to explain a concept one time.
Aweng Majok (2 года назад)
Great job dude! How can we identify whether we shall follow a multiplicative or additive decomposition?
Liam Brochu (2 года назад)
Which forecasting technique would this be? Would it just be considered moving average?
Rugaju Solomon (2 года назад)
KYAKABI
jpaokx (2 года назад)
Hi. Would it be correct if you take MA(2) instead of MA(4)? The curve in this example is obvious and I see why you took for a 4-month period. But, in real word, it is not always visible. What would be your approach for monthly predictions? Earlier, you mentioned that you'll be prepping a video with monthly data. Do you have it available? Thanks mate
Wajid Raza (2 года назад)
Hi @jalayer Academy do you have any tutorials on ARMA model?
Wajid Raza (2 года назад)
Can any one refer a tutorial on ARMA model
Roham Pourmehr (2 года назад)
Is someone playing GTA in the background?
Wesley Pollard (2 года назад)
so how do account for the human element and market conditions?
Amit Chakraborty (2 года назад)
Thank you very much. this is exactly the solution to the problem i was facing. Thanks for the step by step instructions.
4gany (2 года назад)
Hi whats the name of this forecasting method ?
Максим Голендухин (2 года назад)
Thanks a lot. Exactly what I was looking for. The only question is if my season is a week, and data is daily, does it mean MA is for 7 periods?
Martin Novak (7 месяцев назад)
Of course :) or you could make a weekly average and then repeat for future weeks to have months... Just more time
Darragh Murray (1 год назад)
I would assume so yes.
Van Nguyen (1 год назад)
And in your case, I wonder whether the first value of "MA" will be in the 4 row, instead of 3 row as the example. Besides, it is week cycle, 7 days in a week so it is odd number, and we do not need to generate CMA, do we?
Jeffrey Gong (2 года назад)
+Jalayer Academy I would also like to know the answer to this question
Kurt Vella St John (2 года назад)
Good resource but it drags just a bit too much
Eric Abadie (2 года назад)
Thank you for the video. How do I deal with multiple seasonality? I have daily information and each week there is a predictable day of week cycle i.e Tuesday and Monday's are low and Fridays are high. but in addition to this, there is another seasonality where the 3rd week of the month is usually lower than the other weeks of the month. And of course, there is monthly seasonality where the peak month of the year is December followed by a drop in January. How do I include 3 seasonality components using this methodology?
Umaprasad Sutar (2 года назад)
Hi Jalayer, Hope you are doing fine. I wanted to check with you, would it be possible for you to upload Time Series, Regression and Machine Learning models with examples from Human Resources context in excel. Any help with the same is highly appreciated. Thanks for your help in advance.
Jose Angel basurto (2 года назад)
hi, my question is, if I have 4 year information, regarding the first year has 35 periods, second and third 52 and the last just18, how many periods should I have to include for an accurate a moving average?
Narendra Rana (2 года назад)
Great set of videos on time series. Question : Are all time series based on a multiplicative model? If no, then how did you determine that a multiplicative model would fit this data. Also, why did we not try to isolate the irregularity, why just stop at trend and seasonality. Final question, why can't we use the cma value as trend, does that not indicate a trend? thank you once again
val meero (2 года назад)
you're a life saver
P Ncube (2 года назад)
May you also highlight on how you will use excel to outline the general hyperbolic function followed by the prediction or the forecast line. (e.g it can be Yt = aXt^2 -bXt + c.
Mohammad Saber (2 года назад)
Great explanation. Thanks.
Adam Nemčík (2 года назад)
Hi Jalayer, nice tutorial. Did you ever try multivariate forecast ? Im Working in Diploma Thesis with long term forecast where usuall programs like Rapidminer, etc. have little problem with horizont more than +1. I think excell could be nice alternative for my task but i have to work with 14 variables or so. Can you give me some advice please what should be different than in this way ? Thank you
Jiggyciggy (2 года назад)
This guy sounds like the secret service agent from prison break hahahaha
Tanya Devangi (2 года назад)
Hello I just wanted to know how I should address the above if I have monthly data of last 2 yrs instead of quarterly.. plz help
Chioma Odimegwu (2 года назад)
you're awesome at breaking things down and explaining. Thank you!
Air Switch (2 года назад)
Very clear. Thank you. I cannot understand my professor at all. Also his examples are terrible and unclear.
Lumhiere (2 года назад)
hi Jalayer, First of all, i would like to commend you on this awesome video. which i find very interesting and helpful on forecasting. just a question though, can this be applied on "Daily Volumes". say, let's have sales be changed to case counts and i would need to forecast the volume of the upcoming cases that would plunge in by next week, would this be applicable? considering that case count volumes differ on a daily basis and some of the days would have vacant or completely 0 case count at all, as there would be holidays. please let me know your opinion or any alternative approach. thank you so much Greetings from the Philippines !
alexchacon777 (2 года назад)
how can you do a time series analysis with multiple variables (x). ?? thanks
Btissam Rachdi (2 года назад)
Do you have a tutorial about time series using R .. Thank you !
Alex Sabir (3 года назад)
How high were you when you made this video? lol Why are you drawing all over everything? Just point with the mouse.
Muhammad Nazri (3 года назад)
Hi Sir, I've similar inquiry as karadic; why the first value of MA(4) been placed at the 3rd quarter instead of 4th quarter?
Muhammad Nazri (3 года назад)
Hi Sir, I've similar inquiry as karadic; why the first value of MA(4) been placed at the 3rd quarter instead of 4th quarter?
Altamash khan (3 года назад)
is this trend component only use for seasonal items ?or for all items .please reply seasonal index and trend component is same or not
Colton McCormick (3 года назад)
Quarter Orders Overtime 1 53 22 2 56 23 3 52 25 4 62 31 5 47 21 6 46 22 7 48 20 8 57 29 9 43 23 10 45 12 11 46 22 12 53 26 13 38 16 14 35 17 if i have one more vary is overtime how can i do that?
linkolin kampret (3 года назад)
Could you help me, if I have 8 Quarter ? Please..
Rahul Krishnan (3 года назад)
this is just awesome!!! helped me a lot in my work!!!
soukaina mahfoud (3 года назад)
Hi! If that statistically correct if I add factors to the regression model, such as index values, and if the added variable adds significance to the model then I also use forecasted index value (in addition to the period variable shown here) to forecast my revenues?
Armando Hernandez (3 года назад)
Thanks you safe my life brother!
Gugan Babu (3 года назад)
Can u please tell me how to predict the month wise data using method. Can u please explain it by an example.....
Daniele Giorgi (3 года назад)
One question?this is holt winter method or not?thanks
Douglas Pernikoff (3 года назад)
so, i am following the time series modeling and wondering what steps to pass on if i have only annual revenues for 16 years and want to predict into year 17.  i have a chart with a trend line for the real data.  do i need to perform a linear regression model first, or what steps are appropriate to get my one year out forecast?   thank you.
Amit Singha Roy (3 года назад)
Nice

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